Heathrow Third Runway Could Cost Britain Up to £62.5bn, Data Shows
Government transport figures reveal the third runway's costs far outweigh GDP gains, with up to 3 million people facing health impacts.
The United Kingdom's Department for Transport has calculated that building a third runway at Heathrow Airport could cost the country between £23.4 billion and £62.5 billion — figures that cast serious doubt on the economic case long championed by government ministers and airport advocates alike.
For years, officials have justified airport expansion on growth grounds. Former Chancellor Rachel Reeves cited projections that a third runway would add 0.43% to GDP, but those figures were later traced to a report commissioned by the airport itself. The transport department's independent analysis put the actual GDP benefit far lower — between 0.03% and 0.05%, or roughly eight to fourteen times less than the airport-funded estimate.
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When social and environmental costs are factored in, the department's own accounting reveals a substantial net loss to the nation. The analysis found that the expansion would cause significant harm to the health and wellbeing of as many as 3 million people living near the airport, a figure that adds considerable weight to the opposition case.
Critics argue that the expansion prioritizes short-term economic signaling over measurable public welfare, pointing to the gap between ministerial rhetoric and the government's internal data. The findings renew pressure on decision-makers, including Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, to scrutinize the project's true costs before any approval moves forward.
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